Bayesian estimation of performance measures of cervical cancer screening tests in the presence of covariates and absence of a gold standard
Loading...
Authors
Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi
Louzada-Neto, Francisco
Derchain, Sophie Françoise Mauricette
Achcar, Jorge Alberto
Gontijo, Renata Clementino
Sarian, Luis Otávio Zanatta
Syrjänen, Kari Juhani
Issue Date
2008-02-14
Type
Article
Language
en_US
Keywords
Bayesian Analysis , Diagnostic Tests , Latent Variables , Cervical Cytology , Visual Inspection With Acetic Acid , Hybrid Capture II
Alternative Title
Abstract
In this paper we develop a Bayesian analysis to estimate the disease prevalence, the sensitivity and specificity of three cervical cancer screening tests (cervical cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid and Hybrid Capture II) in the presence of a covariate and in the absence of a gold standard. We use Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. The estimated prevalence of cervical lesions was 6.4% (a 95% credible interval [95% CI] was 3.9, 9.3). The sensitivity of cervical cytology (with a result of ≥ ASC-US) was 53.6% (95% CI: 42.1, 65.0) compared with 52.9% (95% CI: 43.5, 62.5) for visual inspection with acetic acid and 90.3% (95% CI: 76.2, 98.7) for Hybrid Capture II (with result of >1 relative light units). The specificity of cervical cytology was 97.0% (95% CI: 95.5, 98.4) and the specificities for visual inspection with acetic acid and Hybrid Capture II were 93.0% (95% CI: 91.0, 94.7) and 88.7% (95% CI: 85.9, 91.4), respectively. The Bayesian model with covariates suggests that the sensitivity and the specificity of the visual inspection with acetic acid tend to increase as the age of the women increases.
The Bayesian method proposed here is an useful alternative to estimate measures of performance of diagnostic tests in the presence of covariates and when a gold standard is not available. An advantage of the method is the fact that the number of parameters to be estimated is not limited by the number of observations, as it happens with several frequentist approaches. However, it is important to point out that the Bayesian analysis requires informative priors in order for the parameters to be identifiable. The method can be easily extended for the analysis of other medical data sets.
Description
Citation
Martinez, E. Z., Louzada-Neto, F., Derchain, S. F., Achcar, J. A., Gontijo, R. C., Sarian, L. O., & Syrjänen, K. J. (2008). Bayesian estimation of performance measures of cervical cancer screening tests in the presence of covariates and absence of a gold standard. Cancer informatics, 6, 33–46.
Publisher
Cancer Informatics